学前教育适龄人口预测及资源供需关系研究——基于2024—2050年省级城镇数据的测算

A Study on Forecasting Preschool-Aged Population and the Relationship of the Supply and Demand of Educational Resources— Based on Provincial Urban Data Projections from 2024 to 2050

中文关键词:  学前教育；省际差异；资源供需匹配

英文关键词:preschool education，inter-provincial differences，resource supply-demand matching

中文摘要:

      省级层面的学龄人口变动与学前教育资源供需研判对我国区域化的学前教育发展总量规划及布局结构优化具有重要意义。基于第七次全国人口普查数据，运用队列要素法预测 2024—2050 年省级城镇学前适龄人口规模，探讨学前教育资源的供需匹配状况。结果表明：（1）测算期间全国城镇学前教育适龄人口规模总体呈现下降趋势；（2）学前教育适龄人口规模及资源供需匹配的变化趋势存在较大的省际差异；（3）从地区来看，随着班级规模缩小，京沪苏粤浙宁等地依次出现短期内幼儿园园所供给不足，粤渝京等地开始出现大规模专任教师短缺，保育员短缺的省级行政区个数逐渐增加；（4）从资源类型来看，当前少量省级行政区的保育员存在短缺，全部省级行政区的专任教师供给充足，但随着班级规模缩小，全国层面的保育员、专任教师和幼儿园依次出现供给不足。

英文摘要:

      Provincial-level changes in school-aged population and assessments of the supply and demand of preschool education resources are critical for planning the total volume and optimizing the layout of regionalized preschool education development in China. Based on the data from the Seventh National Population Census，this study uses cohort component methods to project the scale of urban preschool-aged population in each province from 2024 to 2050，and explores the matching of preschool education resources. The results show that：（1）the national urban preschool-aged population will show an overall downward trend during the forecast period；（2）significant provincial differences exist in the scale of preschool-aged population and resource supply-demand matching；（3）regionally，as the class sizes shrink，short-term shortages of kindergartens will successively emerge in places like Beijing，Shanghai，Jiangsu，Guangdong，Zhejiang and Ningxia；and full-time teacher shortages will arise in Guang dong，Chongqing，and Beijing while there will be a gradual increase in the number of provinces with shortages of nursery teachers；（4）by resource types，the shortage of nursery teachers has already occurred in a few provinces while all provinces have sufficient full-time teacher supply. However，as the class sizes shrink，shortages of nursery teachers，full-time teachers，and kindergartens are expected to occur sequentially nationwide.