| 摘要: |
| 2019新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）是一种全球性流行性疾病.利用贝叶斯系统发育的方法，根据病毒的基因序列来推断有效再生数Re随着时间推移所产生的变化，并用它来表现该病毒流行的动态.研究结果显示：Re随时间变化并不太大，Re最高点的中值为2.88（95% HPD：2.3~3.46），最低点在2020年1月29日左右，其中值为2.74（95% HPD：2.27~3.26）.该研究提供了COVID-19流行病学的一些关键参数值，希望这些结论能够帮助同行用数学建模的方法来更好地估计疾病早期的未知参数. |
| 关键词: 2019新型冠状病毒肺炎 贝叶斯系统发育方法 有效再生数 |
| DOI：10.3969/J.ISSN.1000-5137.2020.03.011 |
| 分类号:O29;R181 |
| 基金项目:The Natural Science Foundation of China (11771277) |
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| Traceback the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 |
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LOU Jie1, WANG Zhen1, JIN Xin1, ZHANG Zhiyuan2
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1.College of Sciences, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China;2.Department of Statistics, Columbia University, NY 10027, New York, USA
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| Abstract: |
| Corona Virus Disearse 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic. We employ a Bayesian phylogenetic method to infer the epidemic dynamics represented by the effective reproductive number (Re) changing over time from the genomic sequences. Our results show that Re decreased slightly over time, from the highest median value of 2.88 (95% HPD: 2.36–3.46) at the beginning to the lowest median value of 2.74 (95% HPD: 2.27–3.26) near January 29, 2020. This study provides some key parameter values of the COVID-19 epidemic. We hope that these inferences will help some colleagues to estimate unknown parameters of the early stages of the outbreak in their mathematical modelling. |
| Key words: Corona Virus Disearse 2019 (COVID-19) Bayesian phylogenetic method effective reproductive number |
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