| 摘要: |
| 通过对宁波、舒兰和郑州共3组新型冠状病毒肺炎潜伏期数据分别进行正态分布、对数正态分布、Weibull分布以及BS分布拟合检验，发现这3组数据都服从两参数BS疲劳寿命分布。针对多个两参数BS分布总体，给出了参数齐性的近似检验方法，就讨论的3组潜伏期数据可以认为其参数是相同的，并得到了刻度参数β与形状参数α的点估计，进而求得了确诊病例在其暴露开始后的14 d和21 d内出现临床症状或检测试剂呈阳性的概率分别达到0.968 412和0.997 324. 与文献相应结果比较后可知，用两参数BS分布来拟合新冠肺炎潜伏期比用Weibull分布与对数正态分布来拟合的优势明显，所分析的结果与当前的“14+7”的防控策略相吻合。 |
| 关键词: BS疲劳寿命分布 齐性检验 新型冠状病毒肺炎 潜伏期 |
| DOI：10.3969/J.ISSN.1000-5137.2022.03.011 |
| 分类号:O213.2 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(11671264);上海师范大学2021年国家自然科学基金培育计划(309-AC7001-21-003040) |
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| Research on the COVID-19 incubation periods of Ningbo, Shulan and Zhengzhou |
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WANG Ronghua1, GU Beiqing2, XU Xiaoling2
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1.Mathematics and Science College, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China;2.School of Statistics and Information, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai 201620, China
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| Abstract: |
| Three sets of COVID-19 incubation period data from Ningbo， Shulan and Zhengzhou， are respectively fitted with Normal distribution， Lognormal distribution， Weibull distribution and BS distribution. It can be concluded that these three sets of data all follow two-parameter BS distribution. The approximate test method for the homogeneity of parameters is proposed for multiple two-parameter BS fatigue life distribution populations. It can be considered that the parameters of these three sets of incubation period data are the same， and then the point estimates of scale parameter β and shape parameter α are obtained. Thus， the probability of a confirmed case showing clinical symptoms or positive test reagents within 14 d and 21 d of the onset of exposure reaches respectively 0.968 412 and 0.997 324. Compared with the corresponding results in the references， it can be found that two-parameter BS distribution has obvious advantages over Weibull distribution and Lognormal distribution to fit the COVID-19 incubation period. The analysis results are also consistent with the current “14+7” prevention and control strategy. |
| Key words: BS fatigue life distribution homogeneity test COVID-19 incubation period |
